It's the Big One...

With kickoff fast approaching in Athens, I’ve decided to swallow my terror and bring you all my thoughts on tonight’s encounter. The game looks set to be decided in three key areas, the team that wins two or more of these will be celebrating another European Cup tonight.

1. The Goalkeeper

Both sides have keepers that have made high-profile blunders in the past. As Manchester United showed, Dida can be vulnerable, especially on crosses, and Liverpool will be looking to exploit this early. The inclusion of Pennant, meaning Gerrard is likely to play behind a lone striker, seems to suggest Benitez wants balls coming in from wide. Zenden’s delivery will need to improve from the semi final, but if it does, this will be an area Liverpool can hurt Milan.

Pepe Reina may have been the hero of the FA Cup Final and the Chelsea semi-final, but he certainly has his detractors, who won’t let him forget errors for Konchesky’s FA Cup Final goal, and the mauling Liverpool suffered at Goodison Park earlier this season. Like Dida he can be ruffled by crosses into the box, and it’s the Milan fullbacks, likely to be Oddo and Jankulovski, who will provide the Giallorossi with their width. If Liverpool’s wingers can work hard enough, and double up on Milan’s wide men, the likelihood of Reina being caught out by a cross is severely diminished.

2. The Lone Striker

Both sides are likely to play with one up top. For Milan, this will be Inzaghi or Gilardino. Gilardino would provide more pace, but has a poor Champions League goal record, whereas Inzaghi the classic poacher has pedigree in abundance, but less pace than a doped-up Alan Stubbs. Ancelotti will probably go for experience, and pick Inzaghi’s subtle movement and know-how over Gilardino’s eager youth, and the way Liverpool deal with this threat will be crucial. If indeed Inzaghi gets the nod, playing a high defensive line should hold no fears for the Reds, the Italian veteran won’t hurt them by running into 35 yards of space, it’s the 6 yard box where he does his damage. Pushing up as a back four would also limit the space between defence and midfield where Kaka does his best work.

Liverpool will almost certainly go with Dirk Kuyt on his own up front, and his workrate could be key. Milan won’t be used to pressure in their own third of the pitch, with Italian sides tending to put pressure on the ball only in their own half. If Kuyt can force errors in the Milan backline, Liverpool have the ability to punish this. The question is whether Kuyt can be prolific enough to take any chances that may come his way, although with Crouch and Bellamy on the bench, Liverpool will have options to change it should Kuyt be dealt with by Milan. Bellamy’s pace and Crouch’s height will both be potent weapons that Milan will fear, and between the three front-line strikers, Liverpool have 3 very different threats. Will any of them be ruthless enough to actually hurt Milan?

3. The Playmaker

Gerrard v Kaka. This will be the real key. Liverpool will look to limit the influence Kaka has on the game, and Milan will look to isolate Gerrard and prevent his roving late runs into the box. Both are special for different reasons, Gerrard for his power and influence, Kaka for his subtlety, pace and guile. Both are likely to play off a lone striker, and so will probably not be picked up by midfielders. All the talk has been of Mascherano picking up Kaka, but if that’s the case, who’d pick up Pirlo? Or Ambrosini? Or Seedorf? Or Gattuso? Liverpool will go man-for-man in midfield, and it’ll be the centre half who’s not marking Inzaghi that’ll come out and pick up Kaka. Of course, when Kaka drops deep into midfield he may come into contact with Liverpool’s combative Argentinian, but don’t expect Benitez to use Mascherano man-to-man on Kaka. It won’t happen.

Milan will deal with Gerrard in much the same way. For all Gattuso will relish the task of showing Stevie G just how scary he really is, it will probably be Nesta picking up the Liverpool captain. Maldini won’t worry about Kuyt’s pace, and will use his experience to limit the amount of success the clever Dutchman can gain from intelligent (rather than pacy or tricky) runs. This will leave Nesta floating, and he’ll pick up Gerrard’s forays forward. Gerrard’s runs are a lot more unpredictable and powerful than those of Kaka though, and should Nesta’s concentration wane, Milan will certainly be punished. One of Gerrard and Kaka will inspire their team to victory tonight, and in doing so make a real claim to the title of best player in the world. It will be an intriguing battle.

Prediction

Milan 1 v 2 Liverpool.

This will be one of the tightest European Cup Finals in recent memory. But I just think the Milan fear factor from 2005 will tell in the end. Liverpool have the belief that they can beat Milan come what may, and the advantage of experience that Milan took into that Istanbul final has evaporated. Liverpool’s players have been there before too, and even won it from 3-0 down. That would give anyone confidence.